FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

December 20, 2024

CONTACT

Rachel Levine | rachel@allianceforpeacebuilding.org

Washington, DC, USA — President Bashar al-Assad's regime’s sudden defeat marked a surprising conclusion to the 13-year civil war in Syria. The coordinated assault by an array of opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has dramatically changed the balance of power in the country, the Middle East, and globally.[1] The challenges to stabilize Syria are significant. During the 13-year civil war, an estimated 613,407 people were killed, more than half of the population was displaced, and 90 percent of the population was pushed into poverty. Now, multiple states with strategic interests in Syria, such as the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Israel, Iran, and others, are vying for influence. ​​However, efforts to address the dire needs of the Syrian people and support an inclusive, democratic transition and stabilization will be greatly hampered by the designation of HTS and other groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) by the U.S. and other governments and multilateral institutions, including the United Nations. The incoming Trump Administration should undertake robust diplomacy at the highest levels to prevent further violence in Syria and the region, incentivize HTS and other potential spoilers to support a democratic transition, scale up conflict-sensitive humanitarian assistance, and deploy programs that prioritize stabilization, conflict and violent extremism prevention, and peacebuilding, in line with the principles of the Global Fragility Act (GFA).

During the Arab Spring in 2011, pro-democracy groups protested and called for Assad’s ouster, but were met with deadly force, sparking a conflict marked by mass detentions, the use of chemical weapons, the torture of prisoners (including sexual torture), and food insecurity for more than half the population. The civil war also devastated civilian infrastructure and led to a rise in Islamist groups, such as HTS, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and Al Qaeda affiliates.

The conflict had far-reaching consequences for the region, fueling a regional rise in violent extremism and undermining stability and social cohesion throughout the Middle East and in refugee host countries. The geopolitical implications of the fall of the Assad regime are significant. Iran’s land corridor through Syria, where it exported weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas, is now cut off. Russia, which used strategic military bases in the country as a jumping off point to Africa, is now falling back and withdrawing military equipment. Shortly after Assad fled the country, Israeli troops entered Syria for the first time in over 50 years, launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military assets, and promised to double its settlements in the Golan Heights. Now, Turkey is threatening to further destabilize the situation in the country, as its militias clash with U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria.

Since Assad’s ouster, many Syrian refugees have stated an intent to return home, and some host governments are calling for their departure. Given the Alawite minority’s affiliation with the Assad regime, and the decades-long history of violence and brutal oppression by the Assad family, this sect may face retaliation as millions of Syrians grapple with tremendous trauma amongst the state’s diverse ethnic and religious sects. Establishing an inclusive and democratic government in Syria “immediately,” as HTS has indicated, will take considerable technical and financial assistance from the international community in the midst of rapidly shifting internal and regional dynamics.

Since 2011, U.S. engagement in Syria has been primarily devoted to eliminating ISIS and providing $17 billion in humanitarian assistance. The fall of the Assad regime now opens up parts of the country that had previously been cut off from humanitarian aid and stabilization assistance. The future of Syria remains in flux, but there now exists an opportunity for the new Trump Administration to reinforce regional stability, shore up U.S. interests in a strategically important geography, and support a democratic, inclusive transition that respects the rights of all Syrians based on hard-learned lessons in Iraq and other stabilization efforts.

To support a democratic transition and reconstruction in Syria, the new Trump Administration should:

Integrate Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding Throughout U.S. Engagement in Syria

• Utilize all available diplomatic channels and mechanisms to promote a sustained ceasefire in the country and de-escalation of any emerging violence in Syria or the region.

• Ensure all diplomatic, humanitarian, security, peacebuilding, and development engagement in Syria aims to prevent further conflict and violence, does not exacerbate existing tensions and conflict dynamics internally or regionally, and remains flexible and adaptive as the conditions on the ground continue to shift.

• Provide conflict-sensitive humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians, particularly refugee returnees and recently-released detainees. Ensure assistance is gender-sensitive, trauma-informed, includes robust and sustained psychosocial services, and thoroughly integrates peacebuilding and conflict prevention considerations.

• Apply lessons learned through past stabilization efforts and GFA implementation to programs in Syria, including by utilizing flexible funding models, centering local voices in policy and program development, and pivoting as new learning about program efficacy emerges.

• Provide funding and equipment to civilian entities to support the clearance of unexploded ordinances, the provision of emergency civilian health services, and reconstruction efforts.

• Expand USAID’s successful economic stabilization programs into new areas of the country to strengthen local recovery and reconstruction efforts.

Support and Strengthen Policies and Programs That Address the Drivers of Violent Extremism in Syria

• Prioritize interventions and programs aimed at the drivers of violent extremism in Syria, not just security-focused responses to violence.

  • Ensure U.S. assistance in Syria includes conflict prevention and peacebuilding programs that span democracy, human rights, and governance, rule of law, security sector reform, livelihoods, and economic development to address historical grievances and deter radicalization.

• Regularly and meaningfully engage local actors at the community level within all preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) interventions in Syria, including by promoting youth engagement in civic opportunities and access to jobs and stable livelihoods.

• Provide long-term, tailored disengagement, deradicalization, rehabilitation, and reintegration (DDRR) interventions with individuals with prior involvement in violent extremism.

• Consider the impacts on and diverse roles of women and girls throughout all P/CVE efforts in Syria, including through programming that explores how men are pulled into violent extremism, addresses the disproportionate impacts of violent extremism on women, girls, and families, and positions women and girls as key leaders, interrupters, and agents of change in P/CVE, in line with the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Act and Strategy.Prioritize diplomatic engagement and foreign assistance that supports a civilian-led democratic transition within Syria.

Support a Democratic Transition of Political Power

• Prioritize diplomatic engagement and foreign assistance that supports a civilian-led democratic transition within Syria.

  • Closely monitor the ongoing and rapidly evolving situation in Syria and publicly call out any conduct or rhetoric that could undermine sustainable, democratic peace or free and fair elections in the country. Focus on judging armed groups not on their stated commitments to human rights and democracy, but on their actions.

• Provide funding, resources, and technical assistance to pro-democracy civil society organizations to support a democratic transition, human rights, transitional justice, reconciliation, constitutional reform, and, eventually, free and fair elections.

• Ensure that any future political settlement processes meaningfully include and elevate considerations of women and girls, youth, and all ethnic and religious groups.

  • Provide financial, logistical, and technical assistance to support an inclusive political dialogue and process to advance peace and a democratic transition that includes diverse stakeholders, including women, in line with the WPS Act, as well as youth, civil society, and representatives from all religious and ethnic populations.

  • Provide technical and financial support to establishment of a Syrian civil society platform(s) to ensure Syrian citizen priorities for the political transition are communicated and integrated into future political arrangements.

• Consider incentives to currently designated FTOs should they reject violent ideologies and demonstrate commitment to and respect for human rights and good governance.

• Ensure peacebuilding, humanitarian, human rights, and other development and reconstruction organizations based in or funded by the U.S. and commercial activities have the legal protections to operate in Syria to support a democratic transition without running afoul of U.S. sanctions and counterterrorism laws, using the OFAC General Licenses 19 and 20 as a model.   Provide funding, resources, and technical assistance to pro-democracy civil society organizations to support a democratic transition, human rights, transitional justice, reconciliation, constitutional reform, and, eventually, free and fair elections.

Promote Justice and Accountability for Atrocities and Human Rights Violations

• Provide technical and financial support for efforts to collect and preserve evidence, investigations, and transitional justice processes and prosecutions for atrocities and other human rights abuses committed during the conflict in line with the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act and U.S. Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities. Prioritize support to local civil society organizations working to promote justice and accountability.

• Ensure that perpetrators of atrocities are held to account through international, regional, and domestic investigations and prosecutions during any future political settlement processes.

• Issue additional sanctions and other punitive measures against those who directed, supported, and perpetrated atrocities, including conflict-related sexual violence.

• Provide sustained funding for efforts to monitor and document new or future atrocities and human rights abuses.

Play a Global Leadership Role in Multilateral/International Engagement of Syria

• Encourage key allies, such as Turkey and Israel, to exercise restraint and ensure Syria’s territorial integrity.

  • Support a commitment to de-escalation, in particular, between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

• Leverage diplomatic engagement at the UN and other multilateral institutions to dissuade, and as necessary hold to account, foreign powers that intervene in Syria in a way that undermines peace and security and an inclusive, democratic transition.

  • Utilize all available diplomatic channels to discourage regional escalation of instability or conflict, including calls for Israel to halt its military operations in the Golan Heights and across the Syrian border.

• Support efforts by the UN, and specifically the UN Special Envoy for Syria, to create an inclusive transitional government, national dialogue, and other processes to ensure a democratic transition.

• Work with partners to encourage HTS to allow an international team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical weapons to inspect and dismantle facilities producing chemical weapons.

[1] HTS was the primary rebel group behind the ouster of Assad. HTS’ predecessor organization, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN), formed in 2011 amidst the Syrian civil war and had ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. In July 2016, al-Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, dissolved JaN to split with al-Qaeda and established Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS). In January 2017, JFS merged with Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din to establish HTS.

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